A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
